What are the impacts of climate change on sustainable food production, food demand, and population numbers in Sub-Saharan Africa? A systematic review
Contenu principal de l'article
Résumé
Introduction: Climate change is a global phenomenon that is one of the key issues our globe faces in the twenty-first century to feed nine to ten billion people sustainably by 2050. It is a common and dynamic phenomenon caused by complex and interconnected physical, environmental, and human elements. Because it relies on agriculture and natural resources, warmer baseline conditions, low precipitation, and limited ability to adapt, Sub-Saharan Africa is regarded as the most vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Climate change affects and contributes significantly to food and agriculture. Sub-Saharan Africa is a rapidly developing region with a population of over 900 million people and a diverse ecological, meteorological, and cultural variety. It boasts the world's youngest and fastest-increasing population, and it is the only region where the rural population, particularly rural youth, will continue to expand past 2050.
Methods: My systematic searches were based on past review methods, which included using database platforms or bibliographic databases such as Web of Science, Scopus, CAB abstracts, Science Direct, and JSTOR. I also ran a Google Scholar search. My searches were all restricted to Sub-Saharan Africa. As a result, I gathered all search results and reviewed all articles retrieved using preset inclusion criteria. I found over 50 publications, including key FAO and World Bank reports, that answered the highlighted problems. All articles were screened twice (title and abstract, then full-text), with consistency checks at each stage. Relevant publications were read critically, and meta-data and quantitative data were extracted and entered into a database. All included studies were reported narratively, and those that matched the meta-analysis requirements were presented descriptively.
Review Findings: More than 80% of the research agreed that climate change and its implications are current problems in Sub-Saharan Africa. The majority of them forecast predicted changes in population numbers in Sub-Saharan Africa and the related demand for food, as well as examine major climate changes and explain how these changes may affect food production. Food demand in Sub-Saharan Africa is increasing due to socioeconomic and population growth. To increase food security and demand in the face of predicted demographic, economic, and environmental changes, aggressive measures are required. Although international food demand is expected to climb by 60% by 2050 compared to 2005/2007, the increase in Sub-Saharan Africa would be substantially bigger. Food prices in many Sub-Saharan African nations are rising faster than household incomes and other economic prospects. Food demand typically rises with urbanization as the population shifts from rural, presumably food-producing, to urban, primarily for food consumption.
Conclusions: Sub-Saharan Africa has been identified as the most susceptible not only because of its significant exposure to severe climate change but also because many of its inhabitants cannot respond to or adapt to the effects of climate change. Over 90% of agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa is rain-fed, and subsistence is neither technically nor financially robust enough to mitigate the negative effects of climate change, with little room for adaptation. As a result of this analysis, Sub-Saharan Africa is confirmed to be the most vulnerable region to climate change. As a result, governments and development organizations should focus on developing and implementing policies and programs that encourage farm-based adaptation techniques, and then they should be implemented and disseminated with farmers' participation.
Details de l'article
![Creative Commons License](http://i.creativecommons.org/l/by-nc-sa/4.0/88x31.png)
Ce travail est disponible sous licence Creative Commons Attribution - Pas d’Utilisation Commerciale - Partage dans les Mêmes Conditions 4.0 International.
Comment citer
##plugins.generic.shariff.share##
Références
Agrawal, A., & Perrin, N. (2009). Climate adaptation, local institutions, and rural livelihoods. Adapting to climate change: thresholds, values, governance, 350-367.
Annan, K. A. (2001). We the Children: Meeting the Promises of the World Summit for Children. Unicef.
Arndt, C., Bacou, M. (2000). Economy-wide effects of climate variability and prediction in Mozambique. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 82: 750–754.
Bandara, J. S., Cai, Y. (2014). The impact of climate change on food crop productivity, food prices, and food security in South Asia. Econ. Anal. Policy, 44: 451–465.
Barrett, C. B., Christiaensen, L., Sheahan, M., & Shimeles, A. (2017). On the structural transformation of rural Africa. Journal of African Economies, 26(suppl_1), i11–i35.
Bharucha, Z. P. (2013). Sustainable food production: Facts and figures. Spotlight: Producing food sustainability.
Bruinsma, J. (2017). World agriculture: towards 2015/2030: an FAO study. Routledge.
Burney, J., Woltering, L., Burke, M., Naylor, R., & Pasternak, D. (2010). Solar-powered drip irrigation enhances food security in the Sudano–Sahel. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 107(5), 1848-1853.
CDKN. (2014). The IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report: What is in it for Africa? London: Climate and Development Knowledge Network and Overseas Development Institute. Available at: http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/
Challinor, A. J., Ewert, F., Arnold, S., Simelton, E., & Fraser, E. (2009). Crops and climate change: progress, trends, and challenges in simulating impacts and informing adaptation. Journal of experimental botany, 60(10): 2775-2789.
Chauvin, N. D., Mulangu, F., & Porto, G. (2012). Food production and consumption trends in Sub-Saharan Africa: Prospects for the transformation of the agricultural sector. UNDP Regional Bureau for Africa: New York, NY, USA.
Chuku C. A., Okoye C. (2009). Increasing resilience and reducing vulnerability in Sub-Saharan African agriculture: Strategies for risk coping and management. Afr J Agric Res 4:1524–1535.
de Graaff, J., Kessler, A., & Nibbering, J. W. (2011). Agriculture and food security in selected countries in Sub-Saharan Africa: diversity in trends and opportunities. Food Security, 3(2), 195-213.
Dickie, A., Streck, C., Roe, S., Zurek, M., Haupt, F., and Dolginow, A. (2014). Strategies for mitigating climate change in agriculture: recommendations for philanthropy. Climate Focus and California Environmental Associates with support from Climate and Land Use Alliance. Available at Website www. agriculturalmitigation.org
Evenson, R. E., & Gollin, D. (2003). Assessing the impact of the Green Revolution, 1960 to 2000. science, 300(5620), 758-762.
FAO, IFAD, and WFP. (2015). The State of Food Insecurity in the World. Meeting the 2015 international hunger targets: taking stock of uneven progress. Rome, FAO.
FAO. (2006). The State of Food and Agriculture. U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization. Rome.
FAOSTAT. (2016). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (Rome). Available at:http://faostat.fao.org/
FAO-WFP-IFAD. (2012). The state of food insecurity in the world in 2012. Economic growth is necessary but not sufficient to accelerate the reduction of hunger (FAO, Rome, 2012).
Godfray, H. C. J., Beddington, J.R., Crute, I. R. et al. (2010). Food Security: the challenge of feeding 9 billion people. Science, 327: 812–818.
Haile, M. (2005). Weather patterns, food security and humanitarian response in Sub-Saharan Africa. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B 360 (1463): 2169–2182.
Hassan, R. M., & Nhemachena, C. (2008). Determinants of African farmers’ strategies for adapting to climate change: Multinomial choice analysis. African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 2(311-2016-5521), 83-104.
Hilderink, H. B. M., Brons, J., Ordonez, J., Akinyoade, A., Leliveld, A. H. M., Lucas, P., & Kok, M. T. J. (2012). Food security in Sub-Saharan Africa: An explorative study.
IFAD. (2013). African Agricultural Development: Opportunities and Challenges. Statement by IFAD President At the 6th Africa Agriculture Science Week and FARA General assembly,2013).http://www.ifad.org/events/op/2013/fara.htm
Jayne, T. S., Yeboah, K., and Henry, C. (2017). The future of work in African agriculture trends and drivers of change (No. 994987492102676). International Labour Organization.
Kotir, J. H. (2011). Climate change and variability in Sub-Saharan Africa: a review of current and future trends and impacts on agriculture and food security. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 13(3): 587-605.
Kurukulasuriya, P., Mendelsohn, R., Hassan, R., Benin, J., Deressa, T., Diop, M., Eid, H.M.; Fosu, K.Y., Gbetibuo, G., Jain, S., et al. (2006). Will African agriculture survive climate change? World Bank Econ. Rev., 20:367–388.
Liu J. G., et al. (2008). A spatially explicit assessment of current and future hotspots of hunger in Sub-Saharan Africa in the context of global change. Global Planet Change 64:222–235.
Maddison, D. (2007). The Perception of and Adaptation to Climate Change in Africa; World Bank: Washington, DC, USA, 2007; Volume 4: 308.
Masipa, T. S. (2017). The impact of climate change on food security in South Africa: Current realities and challenges ahead. Jàmbá: Journal of Disaster Risk Studies, 9(1), 1-7.
Mendelsohn, R. (2014). The impact of climate change on agriculture in Asia. J. Integr. Agric., 13: 660–665.
Misra, A. K. (2014). Climate change and challenges of water and food security. International Journal of Sustainable Built Environment, 3(1): 153-165.
Mohammed-Saleem, M. A. (1995). Mixed farming systems in Sub-Saharan Africa. International Livestock Research Institute, P O Bow 5689, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
National Research Council. (2012). A sustainability challenge: food security for all: report of two workshops. National Academies Press.
Nelson, G. C., Rosegrant, M. W., Koo, J., Robertson, R., Sulser, T., Zhu, T., ... & Magalhaes, M. (2009). Climate change: Impact on agriculture and costs of adaptation (Vol. 21). Intl Food Policy Res Inst.
Parry, M., Rosenzweig C, Livermore M. (2005). Climate change, global food supply, and risk of hunger. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 360:2125–2138.
Rakotoarisoa, M., Iafrate, M., Paschali M. (2011). Why has Africa Become a Net Food Importer? Explaining African agricultural and food trade deficits (Rome, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations).
Rosen, S., Meade, B., Shapouri, S., D'Souza, A. & Rada, N.(2012). International food security assessment, 2012--‐22. (Economic Research Service, USDA, Washington, D.C., 2012).
Satterthwaite, D., McGranahan, G., & Tacoli, C. (2010). Urbanization and its implications for food and farming. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 365(1554): 2809-2820.
Serdeczny, O., Adams, S., Baarsch, F., Coumou, D., Robinson, A., Hare, W., ... & Reinhardt, J. (2017). Climate change impacts in Sub-Saharan Africa: from physical changes to their social repercussions. Regional Environmental Change, 17(6), 1585-1600.
Shackleton, S., et al. (2015). Why is socially-just climate change adaptation in Sub-Saharan Africa so challenging? A review of barriers identified from empirical cases. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change: Climate Change, 6(3), 321–344.
Smith, P., and Gregory, P. J. (2013). Climate change and sustainable food production. Proceedings of the Nutrition Society, 72(1):21-28.
Teng, P. P., Caballero-Anthony, M., Tian, G., & Lassa, J. A. (2015). Impact of Climate Change on Food Production: Options for Importing Countries.
Thornton, P. K., Jones, P. G., Ericksen, P. J., & Challinor, A. J. (2011). Agriculture and food systems in Sub-Saharan Africa in a 4 C+ world. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 369(1934), 117-136.
Thornton, P., & Herrero, M. (2008). Climate change, vulnerability, and livestock keepers: challenges for poverty alleviation. Livestock and Global Climate Change, 21.
Toenniessen, G., Adesina, A., and DeVries, J. (2008). Building an alliance for a green revolution in Africa. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1136(1): 233-242.
Toman, M. A. (Ed.). (2001). Climate change economics and policy: an RFF anthology. Resources for the Future.
Tschirley, D., Reardon, T., Dolislager, M., & Snyder, J. (2015). The rise of a middle class in East and Southern Africa: Implications for food system transformation. Journal of International Development, 27(5), 628-646.
UN. (2010/14). World Urbanization Prospects: The 2009 Revision Highlights, United Nations, New York, 56 pp. or The 2014 Revision-Highlights. UN.
UNDESA. (2013). Total population by major area, region, and country (medium fertility scenario).
UNECA, 2009. Challenges to Agricultural Development in Africa. In Economic Report on Africa 2009 Developing African Agriculture Through Regional Value Chains. Nairobi, Kenya: United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA), pp. 117–142.
Van Ittersum, M. K., Van Bussel, L. G., Wolf, J., Grassini, P., Van Wart, J., Guilpart, N., ... & Yang, H. (2016). Can Sub-Saharan Africa feed itself? Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 113(52): 14964-14969.
Vermeulen, S. J., Campbell, B. M., and Ingram, J.S.I. (2012). Climate change and food systems. Annual Review of Environment and Resources. 37:195-222.
Wandel, J.; Smit, B. Agricultural Risk Management in Light of Climate Variability and Change. In Agricultural and Environmental Sustainability in the New Countryside; Rural Research Centre, Nova Scotia Agricultural College: Truro, NS, Canada, 2000; pp. 30–39.
Wollenberg, A., Oranje, A., Deleuran, M., Simon, D., Szalai, Z., Kunz, B., ... & de Bruin‐Weller, M. (2016). ETFAD/EADV Eczema task force 2015 position paper on diagnosis and treatment of atopic dermatitis in adult and pediatric patients. Journal of the European Academy of Dermatology and Venereology, 30(5), 729-747.
Wollenberg, E., Richards, M., Smith, P., Havlík, P., Obersteiner, M., Tubiello, F. N., ... & Van Vuuren, D. P. (2016). Reducing emissions from agriculture to meet the 2 C target. Global change biology, 22(12), 3859-3864.
World Bank (2013) Fact sheet: The World Bank and agriculture in Africa. Accessed 19 Feb 2018.
World Bank. (2014). World Development Indicators (http://data. worldbank.org/). Accessed 19 Feb 2018.
World Bank. 1989. Sub-Saharan Africa: from crisis to sustainable growth, a long-term perspective study. World Bank, Washington DC, USA.